Key takeaways:

• • • The FIFA World Cup is a catalyst, not the root cause 鈥� Mexico City’s housing affordability crisis predates the coming tournament. Rental prices have been rising uncontrollably for years, displacing thousands of families annually. The World Cup will accelerate and amplify an already existing problem.

    • The 2024 rental reform is a step in the right direction, but it has significant limitations 鈥� Capping rent increases at the annual inflation rate was a necessary measure, but its impact has been limited by grey areas in the law.

    • The real battle is formalization 鈥� No housing regulation can be fully effective if a large portion of the market operates outside of it. Until authorities find ways to make formal rental agreements genuinely attractive and accessible for both landlords and tenants.

On the eve of the 23^rd playing of the FIFA World Cup, Mexico stands as one of three host countries for one of the most significant sporting events in the world. It will feature matches in Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey, and it will be co-hosted alongside the United States and Canada.

Organizing such an event carries notable financial benefits, including a surge in tourism, job creation, and substantial foreign investment 鈥� all of which generate a local economic spillover that strengthens the national marketplace. At the same time, Mexico’s major capitals鈥� especially its World Cup host cities 鈥� have been undergoing a level of urban transformation that has significantly altered the daily lives of its residents. Chief among these changes is the sharp rise in rental costs, which has been pushing residents toward the cities鈥� outskirts. According to government figures, are displaced each year due to the uncontrolled increase in housing prices in Mexico City alone.

Mexican authorities had to get to work

Legal changes to real estate regulation in Mexico City are not isolated, and what is implemented in the capital often sets a precedent for the rest of the country. Time and again, Mexico City has served as a laboratory for new policies, and when these are proven effective, they become models for nationwide reform.

According to government figures, more than 20,000 households are displaced each year due to the uncontrolled increase in housing prices in Mexico City alone.

That said, in August 2024 鈥� after the city’s head of government noted that rentals costs in none of the boroughs of Mexico City fall below the city鈥檚 minimum wage, and that 9 out of 13 boroughs average rents that exceeded twice the minimum wage 鈥� the Official Gazette of Mexico City published a decree amending Articles 2448-D and 2448-F of the Civil Code for the Federal District, imposing limits on rent increases for residential properties. Previously, the monthly rent increase could not exceed 10% of the agreed-upon rent. That paragraph was amended to establish that rent increases shall never exceed the inflation rate reported by the Bank of Mexico for the previous year.

It is worth noting that the prior 10% cap was nearly three times the general annual inflation rate calculated by the Bank of Mexico in 2025, which stood at 3.69%.

More than a year after these reforms took effect, however, 2025 closed with an average increase in rental prices of . With the FIFA World Cup approaching, prices are expected to continue rising uncontrollably due to the influx of tourists drawn by the event. This concern is well-founded: Ahead of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, empowered landlords to raise rents by more than 40%.

Mexico City鈥檚 rental reform also introduced additional measures. For example, a digital registry for lease agreements was established, to be immediately authorized and managed by the Government of Mexico City. Landlords now are required to register lease agreements within 30 days of their execution. Furthermore, landlords are prohibited from refusing to rent to tenants on the grounds that they have children or pets.

The registration requirement carries real consequences: Should a landlord fail to register a contract within the stipulated period, their ability to invoke legal protection mechanisms in the event of a dispute with a tenant becomes significantly more complicated.

Regardless of the efforts, it鈥檚 not all smooth sailing

That said, the reform contains certain grey areas that limit its scope. For instance, it only applies under specific conditions 鈥� most notably when a lease has been in place for three years or more. A landlord can effectively circumvent the cap by choosing not to renew an existing contract and instead requiring the tenant to sign a new one at a higher price.

A separate but equally significant obstacle to the reform’s effectiveness is the rapid growth of short-term rental platforms. In recent years, the proliferation of temporary accommodation services has steadily reduced the supply of traditional long-term rentals, as more properties are listed on platforms such as Airbnb, Vrbo, or others. Indeed, every 48 hours, three housing units in Mexico City are . And from a national perspective, the Tourism Gross Product reached approximately US $151.5 billion, equivalent to 8.7% of Mexico鈥檚 GDP.

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Every 48 hours, three housing units in Mexico City are converted into Airbnb listings.

This problem is further compounded by the scale of informal rental arrangements. According to the National Housing Survey conducted by Mexico鈥檚 National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), there are more than 200,000 informal rental agreements in Mexico City 鈥� none of which involve formal contracts.

Forcing the real estate market into formalization

This brings us to the central challenge facing city authorities with regard to housing: The need to incentivize the formalization of the real estate market. This is already complicated by the country’s low tax culture and the requirement for landlords to enter a specific tax regime that raises their tax burden. Additionally, rental contracts are not only essential for protecting tenants’ rights, but they also are equally important for landlords 鈥� because without a legally binding agreement, there is no guarantee that the terms of any arrangement will be honored.

Paradoxically, the recent reform may actually push the informal market further underground. By requiring landlords to formally declare their rental income, the regulation inevitably creates a sense of heightened oversight 鈥� one that informal landlords may seek to evade rather than comply with.

To the authorities of Mexico City, the message is clear 鈥� punitive measures alone will not bring the informal market into the fold. Tax benefits for landlords who register their contracts, streamlined and accessible digital registration processes, and legal protections that make formal agreements genuinely advantageous for both parties could go a long way toward building trust in the system.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup will come and go, of course, but the people of Mexico City will remain. They deserve a housing market that works for them 鈥� not one that treats their homes as a commodity to be priced beyond their reach every time the world turns its attention to their city.

You can find out more about the

Key highlights:

• • • Three emerging business models, one unresolved tension听鈥� AI is compressing time, which directly threatens the logic of billing by the hour, but the smartest law firms are not waiting for a winner to emerge before building their strategic foundation.

    • Technology strategy and talent strategy are the same conversation 鈥� The talent model must be designed in tandem with the business model, even amid uncertainty, because many of the structural conditions of legal work are changing all at once.

    • The next great lawyer will lead with human skills, not tool proficiency听鈥� Forward-thinking firms are doubling down on their lawyers鈥� curiosity, judgment, client skills, and relationship-building as these capabilities are those that AI cannot replicate.

Every law firm is asking how AI will change the way legal work gets done; but , Chief Legal Operations Officer at , is asking a more consequential question: How will AI change the way legal work gets听paid for?

Planning around 3 law firm business models in the AI era

AI is making law firms more efficient, of course, but efficiency alone does not answer the harder question of how to capture value and how AI-enabled legal services get priced. Olson Bluvshtein sees three paths emerging in law firms:

1. 1. 1. Billable-hour (still) 鈥� The first is the path of least resistance. Firms stay anchored to the billable hour, raise rates, and use AI to move faster and handle more volume, with the idea that more volume will make up the revenue losses of faster work. With this model, however, the client-firm incentive misalignment remains intact, and the fundamental tension between billing for time and AI compressing that time never gets resolved.
      2. Value-based pricing 鈥� The fixed fee pathway also is likely to gain further traction, as it鈥檚 one that many AI-native law firms are pursuing. In this model, value-based pricing creates a natural meeting point between firm and client interests because when incentives align, everyone wins, Olson Bluvshtein explains.
      3. Frontier models rule 鈥� The third scenario is more speculative but worth watching. As foundational models improve, the need for expensive legal-specific tools may diminish. “I could see a scenario in the future in which we don’t necessarily need all the legal-specific tools that are out there,” she says. Even though technology costs historically come down, cheaper tools do not make the business model question disappear, Olson Bluvshtein notes.

Candidly, Olson Bluvshtein admits that 鈥渢he truth is probably somewhere in the middle,” and the firms best positioned for any of these futures are the ones building the strategic and operational foundation now rather than waiting for the answer to become obvious.

Indeed, the most thoughtfully designed business model will fall short without the right talent foundation to support it. 鈥淭echnology strategy and people strategy are not separate conversations,鈥� Olson Bluvshtein says, adding that they are key parts of the same strategy.

Legal innovation consultant reinforces this point in , noting that many aspects of the structural foundation under which the legal profession has operated are changing all at once. This means that addressing the technology strategy separately from the human side, slice by slice, does not make sense.

Boyko says she encourages law firms to take a step back and approach the problem by identifying what the firm will need first in the future and then plan the talent and tech part for that reality.

Aligning the talent model to the future business model

Not surprisingly, a key challenge for law firms right now is that the future is uncertain. Therefore, it is difficult to design a talent model for an uncertain future and an unknown business model. At the same time, there are some known facts, but the unknown aspect is when these certainties will occur.

More specifically, what is known is that there is mounting pressure on the three possible law firm business models because AI is automating the tasks of past junior associates, clients do not want to pay for tasks completed by junior associates, and clients are bringing more legal work in-house, often until the time when the almost final deliverable is handed over to outside counsel for final review.

To explore the right talent model, one experiment that Boyko suggests is to expand the junior associate experience to include rotations through back-office functions, such as knowledge management, professional development, and technology functions.

At law firm Fredrikson & Byron, Olson Bluvshtein says its associate development program is evolving to prepare for the uncertain future based on three current tactics:

• • • Building AI fluency 鈥� This is a near-term imperative that will soon become table stakes. The goal is to move past basic adoption into something more sophisticated and durable. To enable this, the litigation and M&A practices at Fredrikson are actively working with a variety of tools to test prompts that they can then share more broadly with other teams, while also identifying how AI policy guidance will evolve.
    • Accelerating the development of legal judgment 鈥� Shortening the learning curve for developing legal judgment, which includes the ability to supervise and efficiently validate AI-produced work, is the second essential part of the firm鈥檚 talent development framework. Olson Bluvshtein is candid about where things stand. 鈥淚t has not fully happened yet,鈥� she says. 鈥淏ut building the training infrastructure to operationalize this is a stated goal for the year ahead, including formalized curriculum around effectively and efficiently supervising AI output.鈥�
    • Being hyper-focused on the development and recruiting of human skills 鈥� Doubling down on the human skills 鈥� including client development, negotiation, relationship-building, and sound judgment 鈥� that technology cannot replicate are the capabilities that will define the next generation of great lawyers, regardless of which law firm business model ultimately prevails.

This same philosophy is shaping how Fredrikson recruits. Rather than screening candidates for a checklist of AI tools, the firm is prioritizing curiosity, openness, and the ability to demonstrate human skills. Indeed, the firm is looking for lawyers “who are really good at those human skills鈥� and who bring the kind of judgment and adaptability that compounds over time, explains Olson Bluvshtein.

Boyko underscores a similar approach to skills. 鈥淩ight now, the skills needed to be a good lawyer are no longer those rote skills that AI can automate,鈥� she explains. 鈥淚nstead, they are the people skills, the operational skills, and the client skills.鈥�

Of course, moving from broad experimentation to disciplined, firm-wide maturity takes time, and the gap between early movers and late adopters is already widening. Those firms that will define the next era of legal services already are asking how AI changes the way it delivers value and what skills its lawyers will most need 鈥� and not just looking for the next tool to buy.

You can learn more about the challenges facing legal talent here

Key insights:

• • • Big sporting events create perfect cover for sex trafficking 鈥� The World Cup鈥檚 massive crowds, temporary workers, and stretched local infrastructure make it easier for traffickers to blend in and exploit vulnerable people while staying largely out of sight.

    • Money trails and online ads are where traffickers slip up 鈥� Trafficking often leaves patterns, such as payments tied to commercial sex ads, round鈥慸ollar peer鈥憈o鈥憄eer transactions, and repeat phone numbers or language across online ads. Banks and investigators can spot these red flags, if they know what to look for.

    • Early, cross鈥憇ector collaboration is what actually makes a difference 鈥� The strongest prevention efforts happen before kickoff, when law enforcement, financial institutions, and nonprofits share intelligence, use formal information鈥憇haring tools, and build trusted local networks to respond quickly and protect victims.

As millions of soccer fans descend upon stadiums across North America for the 2026 FIFA World Cup in June and July, perpetrators of human rights crimes also are getting ready to operate in the shadows of host cities. Criminal networks are preparing to exploit the crowds, traffic, and chaos during the event by trafficking vulnerable individuals for commercial sex.

Human traffickers and organized crime groups often exploit major sporting events as opportunities to make quick money because the massive influx of visitors, temporary workers, and strained infrastructure creates perfect conditions for traffickers to operate while being largely undetected. At the same time, the stakeholders involved in countering this illegal activity 鈥� including law enforcement, civil society organizations, and financial institutions 鈥� stand ready to detect it, disrupt it, and protect vulnerable individuals who are exploited by criminal actors.

Indeed, close coordination and collaboration among these entities in advance of the games is key. To that end, the Association of Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialists (ACAMS) and 成人VR视频 are collaborating on a virtual and live event series to support these planning counter-trafficking efforts among stakeholders in several local cities this Spring.

Why major sporting events attract human trafficking activity

Not surprisingly, large crowds draw business opportunities whether they are legitimate or illicit. Collaboration between public and private entities underscore spikes in human trafficking activity. For example, during a recent large sporting event in 2025, 成人VR视频 Special Services partnered with federal law enforcement and other partners to identify nine adult encounters & services offered, which led to the recovery of two juveniles from sex trafficking and three state arrests

Common industries that involve the exploitation of vulnerable individuals include hospitality, construction, illicit massage businesses, escort services, and adult content production. The chaos of events and large influx of people mask the reality that exploitation is happening and makes detection significantly more challenging during these high-traffic periods.

Human traffickers and organized crime groups often exploit major sporting events as opportunities to make quick money because the massive influx of visitors, temporary workers, and strained infrastructure creates perfect conditions for traffickers to operate while being largely undetected.

Critically, understanding human trafficking as a business model depends on the recruitment of vulnerable people and access to money flows. These aspects of the business are also where detection can occur. Financial institutions and money service businesses can identify suspicious transactions related to human trafficking by understanding and recognizing specific transactional patterns, including payments to commercial sex advertisement websites, round-dollar peer-to-peer transactions, and merchant services linked to illicit massage businesses.

This online footprint left by traffickers proves invaluable for detection. Investigators track advertisements across adult services websites, identifying criminal networks through repeated phone numbers, distinctive emojis, and similar wording that may appear across multiple cities. However, smaller-scale operations present significant challenges as well. When the trafficker is an intimate partner or family member with limited transaction volumes, detection becomes exponentially more difficult without external intelligence.

Collaboration is key for prevention and detection

The most critical element for combating human trafficking at major sporting events is collaboration among anti-trafficking experts and employers of these professionals. Effective prevention requires building strong partnerships before these major events occur. Specific actions that can be taken include:

Establishing multi-sector task forces 鈥� The most successful anti-trafficking efforts involve joint task forces that combine federal, state, and local law enforcement with trusted private sector partners and supportive nonprofits or non-government organizations (NGOs) that offer victim services. This toolkit for large scale public events and other anti-trafficking toolkits are excellent resources for local host cities to use to execute these partnerships. These collaborative mechanisms allow different entities to share information in a timely manner.

Leveraging information sharing mechanisms 鈥� Financial institutions can use Section 314(b) authority for peer-to-peer information sharing between banks. This allows financial institutions to piece together fragments of suspicious activity that individually might seem insignificant but collectively reveal trafficking networks. Large federal agencies are consumed by multiple priorities and benefit from information sharing through Section 314(a) and assistance from financial sector partners during special operations to act as a force multiplier. Law enforcement also can benefit from detailed Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs) that contain specific dollar amounts, clear timelines, behavioral observations, and explicit keywords like human trafficking.

Preparing host cities by building networks and outreach in advance 鈥� Some World Cup host cities have already established human rights plans with robust collaborative systems within local task forces, government awareness campaigns, QR codes that link to support services, and multidisciplinary safety plans.

In addition, anti-trafficking professionals across all sectors are accessible and willing to help. Resources include national hotlines, such as the , referral directories on website, and the for cases involving minors. The most important step is simply reaching out to establish connections before crises occur.

Preparing for a safer event

The 2026 World Cup presents a pivotal moment to strengthen collaborative efforts against human trafficking across North America’s host cities. By establishing robust information-sharing networks between financial institutions, law enforcement, NGOs, and host communities before the tournament begins, stakeholders can transform heightened awareness into meaningful action that protects vulnerable individuals.

While traffickers will undoubtedly attempt to exploit the inevitable chaos surrounding a major event like the World Cup, a coordinated, multi-sector response grounded in shared intelligence, victim-centered approaches, and proactive preparation can disrupt their operations and ensure that the world’s celebration of soccer doesn’t come at the cost of human dignity and freedom.

You can find out more about听how organizations are trying to fight against human rights crimes here

Key insights:

• • • Well-being is a professional necessity 鈥� Judges experience decision fatigue, emotional stress, and personal biases that can affect their rulings, making mental and physical well-being a judicial duty.

    • Community engagement builds better judgment 鈥� Staying connected to the communities they serve helps judges develop empathy, recognize bias, and deliver fairer decisions.

    • Diverse experience strengthens the judiciary 鈥� Varied backgrounds and ongoing education in areas like restorative justice make courts more responsive, inclusive, and publicly trusted.

Judges play a unique and essential role in society. They are tasked with interpreting the law, resolving disputes, and upholding justice 鈥� often under intense scrutiny and pressure. Their decisions shape lives, influence public policy, and reinforce the rule of law.

Indeed, judicial rulings may be the most visible part of the job, but they are not the only measure of a judge’s effectiveness 鈥� or of the judiciary’s overall health.

To truly understand and support a robust legal system, it is vital to look beyond the courtroom and examine the broader context in which judges operate. A judiciary that is fair, empathetic, and resilient depends not only on legal expertise, but also on balance, self-awareness, and active engagement with the communities it serves.

The weight of the robe & the value of connection

Despite the solemnity of the judicial office, judges also carry personal experiences, cognitive biases, and emotional responses. The weight of responsibility in adjudicating complex, often emotionally charged cases can lead to stress, burnout, and decision fatigue. that judicial decisions can be influenced by factors such as time of day, caseload volume, and even personal well-being.

When judges prioritize their own well-being through physical health, mental resilience, and time away from the bench, they are better equipped to render fair and consistent decisions. Judicial wellness is not a personal luxury; rather, it is a professional imperative.

Equally important is the role of community engagement. The law does not exist in a vacuum but is shaped by social norms, economic realities, and cultural shifts. Judges who remain isolated from the communities that are affected by their rulings risk losing touch with the lived experiences of the people before them.

Judicial rulings may be the most visible part of the job, but they are not the only measure of a judge’s effectiveness 鈥� or of the judiciary’s overall health.

Engagement with the public helps judges better understand how the law impacts and operates in people’s lives. It also builds the empathy and contextual awareness needed for interpreting statutes or imposing sentences.

For example, a judge who volunteers with youth programs or participates in community forums on public safety may develop a more nuanced understanding of cases involving juvenile offenders or policing practices. Similarly, a judge who attends local cultural events or listens to community leaders may be better positioned to recognize implicit biases or systemic inequities that may be inherent in the justice system.

Community involvement also strengthens public trust. When citizens see judges as accessible and engaged, rather than distant or aloof, confidence in the judiciary increases. And these ideas of transparency and connection are key to maintaining citizens鈥� trust in the courts.

These themes are explored more in depth in the 成人VR视频 Institute鈥檚 video series,听Beyond the Bench. For example, in the episode听,听Associate Justice Tanya R. Kennedy shares her experience educating youth, participating in civic organizations, and leading legal reform initiatives. The episode also highlights how service beyond judicial duties enhances judges鈥� decision-making and strengthens community ties.

Another episode of the series,听,听examines the personal and professional challenges faced by judges and attorneys alike. It features a candid interview with Judge Mark Pfiffer, who emphasizes the importance of mindfulness, peer support, and institutional policies that promote mental health and sustainable work practices.

A judiciary that reflects society

The same principle applies at the institutional level. A judiciary is strongest when it reflects the range of experiences and perspectives present in the society it serves.

Beyond individual judges, the judiciary can benefit from diversity and inclusion. A bench that reflects the full spectrum of society is more likely to deliver balanced and equitable justice. But diversity is not just about representation 鈥� it鈥檚 also about perspective.

Judges who have worked in public defense, civil rights advocacy, or rural legal services bring different insights to the bench than those who have spent their careers in corporate law or prosecution. These varied experiences enrich judicial deliberation and help ensure that decisions are informed by a broad understanding of justice.

Encouraging judges and court personnel to engage in lifelong learning, mentorship, and cross-sector collaboration further strengthens the judiciary. Programs that support judicial education on topics like implicit bias, trauma-informed practices, or restorative justice are essential to modern, responsive courts.

Improving judges鈥� well-being

The quality of justice depends not only on what happens in the courtroom, of course, but on what happens outside of it. Judges who maintain personal balance, engage with their communities, and remain open to diverse perspectives are better equipped to serve the public good.

Legal professionals, court administrators, and policymakers should support the kinds of initiatives that promote judicial wellness, community outreach, and professional development. By fostering a judiciary that looks beyond the bench, we ensure a justice system that is not only legally sound, but also humane, inclusive, and trusted.

In the end, judges and the justice they mete out are not defined by court rulings alone. It also depends on relationships, context, and public trust. Recognizing that reality is essential to preserving the well-being of the judiciary and the integrity of the law.

The听鈥�Beyond the Bench鈥澨齰ideo series is available on

Key takeaways:

• • • Country-by-country reporting will only increase in complexity 鈥� Australia’s enhanced Country-by-country reporting (CbCR) requirements 鈥� reconciling taxes accrued against taxes credited 鈥� are a preview of where other high-scrutiny jurisdictions are heading, and companies need to build that explanatory analysis capability now, systematically, rather than scrambling later.

    • There has to be a shared narrative from corporate teams 鈥� The EU鈥檚 public CbCR is a reputational event, not just a filing. So that means tax, communications, and investor relations teams need a shared narrative before the data goes public 鈥� inconsistencies create exposure you do not want to manage reactively.

    • Rethink your filing jurisdiction in light of changes 鈥� If EU filing jurisdiction was chosen at initial implementation and never revisited, look again. Guidance has matured, and a more efficient or better-suited option may now be available.

WASHINGTON, DC 鈥� Among the many pressing topics discussed in detail at the recent , country-by-country reporting (CbCR) and its ability to reshape the corporate tax industry, certainly had its place. Between escalating local jurisdiction requirements, the , and for deeper explanatory disclosures, CbCR has quietly evolved from a transfer pricing filing obligation into something far more strategically consequential.

The floor is just the floor

The creation of the by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) was intended as a minimum standard for countries. And now jurisdictions are increasingly layering additional requirements on top of the OECD鈥檚 basic template, resulting in a widening gap between the standard requirements and what tax authorities actually want.

Currently, Australia is the most pointed example. Australian tax authorities are now requiring multinational groups to go beyond the standard CbCR data fields and provide explanatory narratives that reconcile taxes accrued against taxes actually credited. This requires corporate tax departments to bridge the gap between financial statement accruals and their organizations鈥� cash tax positions in a way that is coherent, defensible, and consistent with positions taken elsewhere.

At the TEI event, panelists explained that for tax departments this will carry complex timing differences, deferred tax positions, or significant jurisdictional mismatches between booked and cash taxes. Indeed, this additional layer of scrutiny will need dedicated attention.

Please add your voice to 成人VR视频鈥� flagship , a global study exploring how the professional landscape continues to change.听

The broader signal matters: Australia will not be the last jurisdiction to move in this direction. So that means that tax departments should treat Australia’s approach as a leading indicator of where other high-scrutiny jurisdictions could be heading. Building the capability to produce this kind of explanatory analysis systematically 鈥� rather than scrambling jurisdiction by jurisdiction 鈥� would be the smarter long-term investment for corporate tax teams.

Public CbCR in the EU: The transparency ratchet has turned

For US-based multinationals with significant European operations, the EU’s public CbCR directive has fundamentally changed the calculus. Unlike the confidential tax authority filings most corporate tax departments are accustomed to, the EU鈥檚 public CbCR rules put organizations鈥� jurisdictional profit and tax data into the public domain, making it visible to investors, journalists, civil society groups, and organizations鈥� employees and customers.

The EU framework specifies which entities trigger the reporting obligation and which entity within the group is responsible for making the public filing. That scoping analysis is not always straightforward for complex multinational structures and getting it wrong could present both reputational and legal risk.

Choosing a filing jurisdiction is not purely an administrative decision 鈥� it is a choice that affects the regulatory environment that governs the disclosure, the language requirements, the timing, and the interpretive framework that applies to data.

For US-headquartered groups, the implications extend well beyond Europe. Public CbCR data is now being read alongside US disclosures, reporting on ESG activities, and public narratives about tax governance. Inconsistencies, including those technically explainable, could create unwanted noise about the company. This is clearly another reason why the tax function should partner across the business 鈥� in this case with the communications team 鈥� to make they both are aligned to tell the CbCR story instead of being caught off guard by a journalist or an investor during an earnings call.

Questions that US multinationals should be asking

Fortunately, US multinationals with multiple EU subsidiaries are not required to file public CbCR reports in every EU member state in which they have a presence. Instead, under the EU framework, a qualifying ultimate parent or standalone undertaking can satisfy the public disclosure requirement through a single filing in one EU member state, provided the relevant conditions are met. Germany and the Netherlands have emerged as two of the more popular choices for this consolidated filing approach, given their well-developed regulatory frameworks and the depth of available guidance on what compliant disclosure looks like in practice.

The strategic implication is meaningful. Choosing a filing jurisdiction is not purely an administrative decision 鈥� it is a choice that affects the regulatory environment that governs the disclosure, the language requirements, the timing, and the interpretive framework that applies to data. Corporate tax departments that defaulted to a filing jurisdiction early in the EU implementation process should take a fresh look. Regulatory guidance has matured significantly, and there may be a more efficient or better-suited path available than the one originally chosen.

The uncomfortable divergence

There is a notable irony in the current environment. Domestically, the IRS and U.S. Treasury’s 2025-2026 Priority Guidance Plan reflects an explicit focus on deregulation and burden reduction, detailing dozens of projects aimed at reducing compliance costs for US businesses. Meanwhile, the international compliance environment has moved in the opposite direction, adding disclosure layers, explanatory requirements, and public transparency obligations that many US businesses cannot avoid simply because they are headquartered in the United States.

This divergence has a direct implication for how tax departments allocate resources and make the internal case for investment in international compliance infrastructure. The burden internationally is not going down 鈥� indeed, it is intensifying 鈥� and that argument is now backed by concrete examples rather than projections.

3 things worth doing now

There are several actions that corporate tax teams should consider, including:

Audit CbCR data quality with Australia’s enhanced requirements in mind 鈥� If you cannot readily reconcile taxes accrued to taxes credited at the jurisdictional level, that gap needs to be closed before it becomes an authority inquiry.

Revisit EU filing jurisdiction strategy 鈥� If your jurisdictional decision was made at the time of initial implementation and has not been reviewed since, it is worth a fresh look before the next reporting cycle.

Develop an internal narrative around public CbCR data before it circulates externally 鈥� Your company鈥檚 tax story should not be a surprise to the corporate teams involved in communications, investor relations, or ESG 鈥� and in today鈥檚 world, assuming such news stays quiet is no longer a safe assumption.

While CbCR started as a tool for tax authorities, it today has become something more visible, more public, and more consequential than that 鈥� and that trajectory is not reversing any time soon.

You can download a full copy of the 成人VR视频 Institute鈥檚

Key takeaways:

• • • AI frameworks need to keep up with implementation 鈥� While AI governance frameworks are being developed and enacted globally, their effectiveness depends on enforceable mechanisms within domestic justice systems.

    • Access to justice is essential for trustworthy AI regulation 鈥� Rights and protections are only meaningful if individuals can understand, challenge, and seek remedies for AI-driven decisions. Without operational access, governance frameworks risk remaining theoretical.

    • People-centered justice and human rights must anchor AI governance 鈥� Embedding human rights standards and ensuring equal access to justice in AI regulation strengthens public trust, accountability, and the credibility of both public institutions and private companies.

AI governance is accelerating across global, national, and local levels. As public investment in AI infrastructure expands, new oversight bodies are emerging to assess safety, risk, and accountability. The global policy conversation has from principles to the implementation of meaningful guardrails and AI governance frameworks, which legislators now are drafting and enacting.

These developments reflect growing recognition that AI systems demand structured oversight and a shift from voluntary safeguards and standards to institutionalized governance. One critical dimension remains underdeveloped, however: how do these frameworks function in practice? Are they enforceable? Do they provide accountability? Do they ensure equal access?

AI governance will not succeed on the strength of international declarations or regulatory design alone; rather, domestic justice systems will determine whether it works. At this intersection, the connection between AI governance and access to justice becomes real.

In early February, leaders across government, the legal sector, international organizations, industry, and civil society convened for an expert discussion. The following reflections attempt to build on that dialogue and its urgency.

From principles to enforcement

Over the past decade, AI governance has evolved from hypothetical ethical guidelines to voluntary commitments, binding regulatory frameworks, and risk-based approaches. Due to these game-changing advancements, however, many past attempts to provide structure and governance have been quickly outpaced by technology and are insufficient without enforcement mechanisms. As Anoush Rima Tatevossian of The Future Society observed: 鈥淭he judicial community should have a role to play not only in shaping policies, but in how they are implemented.鈥�

Frameworks establish expectations, while courts and dispute resolution mechanisms interpret rules, test rights, evaluate harm, assign responsibility, and determine remedies. If individuals are not empowered to safeguard their rights and cannot access these mechanisms, governance frameworks remain theoretical or are casually ignored.

This challenge reflects a broader structural constraint. Even without AI, legal systems struggle to meet demand. In the United States alone, 92% of people do not receive the help they need in accessing their rights in the justice system. Introducing AI into this environment without strengthening access can risk widening, rather than narrowing, the justice gap.

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Justice systems serve as the operational core of AI governance. By inserting the rule of law into unregulated areas, they provide the infrastructure that enables accountability by interpreting regulatory provisions in specific cases, assessing whether AI-related harms violate legal standards, allocating responsibility across public and private actors, and providing accessible pathways for redress.

These frameworks also generate critical feedback. Disputes involving AI systems expose gaps in transparency, fairness, and accountability. Legal professionals see where governance frameworks first break down in real-world conditions, often long before policymakers do. As a result, these frameworks function as an early signal of policy effectiveness and rights protections.

Importantly, AI governance does not require entirely new legal foundations. Human rights frameworks already provide standards for legality, non-discrimination, due process, and access to remedy, and these standards apply directly to AI-enabled decision-making. 鈥淎I can assist judges but must never replace human judgment, accountability, or due process,鈥� said Kate Fox Principi, Lead on the Administration of Justice at the United Nations (UN) Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), during the February panel.

Clearly, rights are only meaningful when individuals can exercise them 鈥� this constraint is not conceptual, it鈥檚 operational. Systems must be understandable, affordable, and responsive, and institutions should be capable of evaluating complex, technology-enabled disputes.

Trust, markets & accountability

Governance frameworks that do not account for these dynamics risk entrenching inequities rather than mitigating them. An individual鈥檚 ability to understand, challenge, and seek a remedy for automated decisions determines whether governance is credible. A people-centered justice approach, as established in the , asks whether individuals can meaningfully engage with the system, not just whether rules exist. For example, women face documented barriers to accessing justice in any jurisdiction. AI systems trained on biased data can replicate or amplify existing disparities in employment, financial services, healthcare, and criminal justice.

鈥淚nstitutional agreement rings hollow when billions of people experience governance as remote, technocratic, and unresponsive to their actual lives,鈥� said Alfredo Pizarro of the Permanent Mission of Costa Rica to the UN. 鈥淧eople-centered justice becomes essential.鈥�

AI systems already shape outcomes across employment, financial services, housing, and justice. Entrepreneurs, law schools, courts, and legal services organizations are already building AI-enabled tools that help people navigate legal processes and assert their rights more effectively. Governance design will determine whether these tools help spread access to justice and or introduce new barriers.

Private companies play a central role in developing and deploying AI systems. Their products shape economic and social outcomes at scale. For them, trust is not abstract; it is a success metric. 鈥淚nnovation depends on trust,鈥� explained Iain Levine, formerly of Meta鈥檚 Human Rights Policy Team. 鈥淲ithout trust, products will not be adopted.鈥� And trust, in turn, depends on enforceability and equal access to remedy.

AI governance will succeed or fail based on access

As Pizarro also noted, justice provides 鈥渘ormative continuity across technological rupture.鈥� Indeed, these principles already exist within international human rights law and people-centered justice; although they precede the advent of autonomous systems, they provide standards for evaluating discrimination, surveillance, and procedural fairness, and remain durable as new challenges to upholding justice and the rule of law emerge.

People-centered justice was not designed for legal systems addressing AI-related harms, but its outcome-driven orientation remains durable as new justice problems emerge.

The current stage presents an opportunity to align AI governance with access to justice from the outset. Beyond well-drafted rules, we need systems that people can use. And that means that any effective governance requires coordination between policymakers, legal professionals, and the public.

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Key insights:

• • • SAR volume is significantly underreported 鈥� Continuing and amended filings add approximately 20% to the official count yet remain invisible in trend analyses.

    • Filing activity is highly concentrated 鈥� A few large financial institutions dominate SARs volume, meaning trends reflect their practices more than systemic changes.

    • Agentic AI will drive a surge in SARs 鈥� Agentic AI risks increased noise over actionable intelligence, without addressing the unresolved question of whether current filings yield meaningful law enforcement outcomes.

The Suspicious Activity Reports (SAR) that financial institutions file with the U.S. Treasury Department鈥檚 Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) provide valuable insight, although they may not offer a comprehensive picture.

Prior to meaningful discussions regarding the future of SARs, it is essential for the financial crime community to clarify what is being measured. In 2025, for example, SAR filings of more than 4.1 million, representing an almost 8% increase compared to the total number of SARs filed in 2024.

Every figure FinCEN has published reflects original SARs only. Continuing activity SARs, which represent roughly 15% of all filings, are submitted under the original Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) identification number and never appear as new filings. Corrected and amended SARs add another 5% on top of that. This makes the real volume of SARs activity approximately 20% higher than what is reported.

The average community bank files fewer than one SAR a week, while the largest institutions file more than 500 a day.

Recent FinCEN guidance giving financial institutions more flexibility around continuing activity SARs sounds significant on paper, but as former Wells Fargo BSA/AML chief Jim Richards points out: “It won’t change the reported numbers 鈥� because those filings were never counted to begin with.” Financial crime professionals need to keep that gap in mind every time a trend line gets cited.

2025 was steady, not spectacular

There were roughly 300,000 SARs filed every single month of 2025, and the most notable thing is that nothing notable happened. That is likely a first on the volume side and worth acknowledging, but beyond that milestone the year did not hand financial crime professionals anything noteworthy. In a space that has dealt with pandemic distortions, crypto chaos, and fraud spikes that seemed to come out of nowhere, steady volume and predictable patterns are a little surprising. A quiet data set, however, is not the same as a quiet landscape, and financial crime professionals who are reading stability as stagnation may find themselves flat-footed when the numbers start moving again.

For example, one of the most underleveraged insights in the SARs space is just how concentrated filing activity really is. The numbers are stark: The top four banks file more SARs in a single day than 80% of the rest of the banks file in 10 years, according to 2019 data from a .

The average community bank files fewer than one SAR a week, while the largest institutions file more than 500 a day. “50 a year versus 500 a day,” notes Wells Fargo鈥檚 Richards, adding that such asymmetry has real implications for how the financial industry interprets trends. Meaningful movement in SARs data, up or down, is almost entirely dependent on what a handful of mega-institutions decide to do.

Not surprisingly, money services businesses (MSBs) are the second largest filing category, and virtual currency exchanges are almost certainly driving recent growth there, even if outdated category definitions make that difficult to confirm directly. Credit unions round out the top three.

The filing philosophy hasn’t changed and shouldn’t

Regulatory noise occasionally suggests that institutions should be more selective about what they file. However, compliance and legal reality have not shifted. No institution has ever faced serious consequences for filing too many SARs, and the cases that result in enforcement actions, reputational damage, and regulatory scrutiny are consistently about missed filings or late ones.

鈥淵ou’re not going to get in trouble from filing too much,鈥� Richards says. 鈥淣obody ever has, and I doubt if anyone ever will.” For financial crime professionals, the calculus remains exactly what it has always been 鈥� when in doubt, file. That posture isn’t going to change, and frankly it shouldn’t.

Yet, here is where the SARs space gets genuinely interesting. Agentic AI use in SARs filings 鈥� systems in which multiple AI agents work through a case from screening to decision to documentation 鈥� is beginning to move from concept to deployment. The impact on filing volume likely will be significant.

The risk is a system flooded with AI-generated SARs of variable quality, creating more noise for law enforcement to sort through rather than sharper intelligence to act upon.

Whereas a small team today might work through a handful of cases a week, AI-assisted workflows could push that into the dozens. Multiply that across institutions already inclined to file rather than miss something, and the result is a coming surge in SARs volume that could play out over the next two to four years.

“Agentic AI has the potential to be a game changer on how we do our work,鈥� Richards explains. 鈥淏ut I believe it’ll guarantee that there will be more SARs filed and not necessarily better and fewer SARs filed.” Indeed, the critical point for the financial crime community to internalize is exactly that.

The risk is a system flooded with AI-generated SARs of variable quality, creating more noise for law enforcement to sort through rather than sharper intelligence to act upon. Once the largest institutions adopt agentic AI as a best practice, others will follow quickly, and regulators will likely be several steps behind.

The value question can’t wait

The has been in place since 2014. Yet after 12 years of filings, the financial crime community still lacks a clear public accounting of whether that data has produced actionable law enforcement outcomes.

So, the question Richards is asking is one the entire industry should be asking: “Has anybody asked law enforcement?”

This question reflects a larger challenge that the industry needs to confront more aggressively, especially as AI technology is set to dramatically increase filing volume across the board. Increasing the volume without improving how the information is used does not represent progress. If SARs are not generating real investigative value, the solution is not to file more of them faster 鈥� instead, the pipeline should be fixed before it grows any bigger.

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Key insights:

• • • AI’s greatest strength in criminal justice is pattern recognition鈥� AI can process vast amounts of data quickly, helping law enforcement and legal professionals detect connections, reduce oversight gaps, and improve consistency across investigations and casework.

    • AI should strengthen justice, not substitute for human judgment鈥� Legal professionals are integral to evaluating AI-generated outputs, especially when decisions affect evidence, warrants, and individuals鈥� constitutional rights.

    • The most effective model is human/AI collaboration鈥� AI handles scale and speed, while judges, attorneys, and investigators provide context, accountability, and ethical reasoning needed to protect due process.

The law has always been about patterns 鈥� patterns of behavior, patterns of evidence, and patterns of justice. Now, courts and law enforcement can leverage a tool powerful enough to see those patterns at a scale at a speed no human mind could match: AI.

At its core, AI works by recognizing patterns. Rather than simply matching keywords, it learns from large amounts of existing text to understand meaning and context and uses that learning to make predictions about what comes next. In the context of law enforcement, that capability is nothing short of transformative.

These themes were front and center in a recent webinar, , from the听, a joint effort by the National Center for State Courts听(NCSC) and the 成人VR视频 Institute (TRI). The webinar brought together voices from across the justice system, and what emerged was a clear and consistent message: AI is a powerful ally in the pursuit of justice, but only when paired with the judgment, accountability, and constitutional grounding that human professionals can provide.

AI’s pattern recognition is a gamechanger

“AI is excellent,鈥� said Mark Cheatham, Chief of Police in Acworth, Georgia, during the webinar. 鈥淚t is better than anyone else in your office at recognizing patterns. No doubt about it. It is the smartest, most capable employee that you have.”

That kind of capability, applied to the demands of modern policing, investigation, and prosecution, is a genuine gamechanger. However, the promise of AI extends far beyond the patrol car or the precinct. Indeed, it cascades through the entire arc of justice 鈥� from the moment a crime is detected all the way through prosecution and adjudication.

Each step in that chain represents not just an operational and efficiency upgrade, but an opportunity to make the system more fair, more consistent, and more protective of the rights of everyone involved.

Webinar participants considered the practical implications. For example, AI can identify and mitigate human error in decision-making, promoting greater consistency and fairness in outcomes across cases. And by automating labor-intensive tasks such as reviewing body camera footage, AI frees prosecutors and defense attorneys to focus on other aspects of their work that demand professional judgment and legal expertise.

In legal education, the potential of AI is similarly recognized. Hon. Eric DuBois of the 9th Judicial Circuit Court in Florida emphasizes its role as a tool rather than a substitute. “I encourage the law students to use AI as a starting point,鈥� Judge DuBois explained. 鈥淏ut it’s not going to replace us. You’ve got to put the work in, you’ve got to put the effort in.”

AI can never replace the detective, the prosecutor, the judge, or the defense attorney; however, it can work alongside them, handling the volume and velocity of data that no human team could process alone.

Judge DuBois’ perspective aligns with broader judicial sentiment on the responsible integration of AI. In fact, one consistent theme across the webinar was the necessity of maintaining human oversight. The role of the legal professional remains central, participants stressed, because that ensures accuracy, accountability, and ethical judgment. The appropriate placement of human expertise within AI-assisted processes is essential to ensuring a fair and effective legal system.

That balance between leveraging AI and preserving human judgment is not just good practice, rather it鈥檚 a cornerstone of justice. While Chief Cheatham praises AI’s pattern recognition, he also cautions that it “will call in sick, frequently and unexpectedly.” In other words, AI is a powerful but imperfect tool, and those professionals who rely on it must always be prepared to intervene in those situations in which AI falls short. Moreover, the technology is improving extremely rapidly, and the models we are using today will likely be the worst models we ever use.

Naturally, that readiness is especially critical when individuals鈥� rights are on the line. 鈥淎 human cannot just rely on that machine,鈥� said Joyce King, Deputy State’s Attorney for Frederick County in Maryland. 鈥淵ou need a warrant to open that cyber tip separately, to get human eyes on that for confirmation, that we cannot rely on the machine.” Clearly, as the webinar explained, AI does not replace constitutional obligations; rather, it operates within them, and the professionals who use AI are still the guardians of due process.

The human/AI partnership is where justice is served

Bob Rhodes, Chief Technology Officer for 成人VR视频 Special Services (TRSS) echoed that sentiment with a principle that cuts across every application of AI in the justice system. “The number one thing鈥� is a human should always be in the loop to verify what the systems are giving them,” Rhodes said.

This is not a limitation of AI; instead, it鈥檚 the design of a system that works. AI identifies the patterns, and trained, experienced professionals evaluate them, act on them, and are accountable for them.

That partnership is where the real opportunity lives. AI can never replace the detective, the prosecutor, the judge, or the defense attorney. However, it can work alongside them, handling the volume and velocity of data that no human team could process alone. So that means the humans in the room can focus on what they do best: applying judgment, upholding the law, and protecting an individual鈥檚 rights.

For judicial and law enforcement professionals, this is the moment to lean in. The patterns are there, the technology to read them is here, and the opportunity to use both in service of rights 鈥� not against them 鈥� has never been greater.

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• • • The ceasefire is between the US and Iran and is not a regional peace 鈥�听Israel launched its heaviest strikes yet on Lebanon within hours of the announced deal. Iran hit oil infrastructure in Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia 鈥� including the East-West Pipeline, the primary route for bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Companies planning around a return to normal should instead plan around the idea that the war has narrowed, not ended.

    • If the disruption stays within one quarter, the economic damage is painful but reversible 鈥� The Dallas Fed projects WTI oil at roughly $98 per barrel with a modest GDP hit in a short-closure scenario. The catastrophic scenario 鈥� WTI above $132 with sustained negative growth 鈥� requires the closure of the war to drag past Q2. Every week the ceasefire holds improves the odds, but Iran’s strike on the Saudi bypass pipeline complicates even the optimistic timeline.

    • Iran may have stumbled into the most lucrative chokepoint tax in modern history 鈥� At conservative estimates, transit fees charged for traversing the Strait of Hormuz could generate $40 billion to $50 billion for Iran annually, or roughly 10% to 15% of Iran’s pre-war GDP 鈥� all at near-zero operating cost. That revenue stream inverts Tehran’s incentives. Indeed, keeping the toll system in place may now be worth more than restoring free transit.

On April 7, less than two hours before a self-imposed deadline that threatened the destruction of Iran’s civilian infrastructure, President Donald J. Trump announced a two-week ceasefire in the war in Iran that began on the last day of February and continued over 38 days of sustained air strikes by the Unites States and Israel. In turn, Iran carried out retaliatory attacks across over a dozen countries and forced the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

With the ceasefire, all that has paused. Yet, the question every boardroom, general counsel’s office, and procurement team is asking right now is simple: How can I plan around this?

The honest answer is, not yet 鈥� and the first 24 hours have already shown why.

A fragile, but functional peace

The ceasefire is remarkably thin, and it鈥檚 based on three operative clauses: i) the US and Israel halt strikes on Iran; ii) Iran halts retaliatory attacks on the US and Israel; and iii) Iran allows “safe passage” through the Strait of Hormuz. Everything else 鈥� from nuclear terms, sanctions, reconstruction, and the legal status of Hormuz transit 鈥� has been punted to negotiations in Islamabad beginning April 10, with Pakistan mediating.

With the ceasefire, the question every boardroom, general counsel’s office, and procurement team is asking right now is simple: “How can I plan around this?”

However, what the ceasefire covers matters less than what it doesn’t. Within hours of the announcement, Israel launched its heaviest strikes yet on Lebanon, and Iran warned it would withdraw from the ceasefire if attacks on Lebanon continue. Meanwhile, Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain all reported fresh Iranian missile and drone strikes targeting oil, power, and desalination infrastructure after the ceasefire was in place. Most critically, Iran struck Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, the main route by which Gulf producers have been rerouting oil to bypass the blockaded strait.

That pipeline strike should command attention in every supply chain and energy risk briefing this week because it signals how shaky the agreement is, and that Iran remains a long-term threat to vital infrastructure across the region.

For companies operating in or sourcing from the Gulf, the practical implications are immediate. This is not a ceasefire that restores pre-war operating conditions; rather it is a bilateral pause between two belligerents while the regional war continues around them. Insurance premiums, shipping risk assessments, and supply chain contingency plans should reflect that distinction until there is a meaningful shift.

What does this mean for the next two weeks?

Both sides are claiming victory 鈥� and increasingly, claiming different deals. Trump called Iran’s 10-point proposal “a workable basis on which to negotiate”; and Iran’s Supreme National Security Council called the ceasefire a “crushing defeat” for Washington. The White House now says the 10-point plan Iran is publicly circulating differs from the terms that were actually negotiated for the ceasefire. Tehran, meanwhile, says there is no deal at all if Lebanon isn’t included 鈥� a condition the US has not acknowledged. And of course, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

These are not the hallmarks of a stable agreement; but they may be the hallmarks of a durable one. The deal is thin enough so that each side can brief its domestic audience on a different story, and as long as neither is forced to reconcile those stories publicly, the pause holds.

And the incentives to keep talking are asymmetric but real. The US has watched gas prices surge past $4 nationally as domestic support for the war 鈥� which started at levels best described as in a hole 鈥� continued to drop even further. Goldman Sachs raised its recession probability to 30% and JPMorgan to 35%, and every day the strait stays closed pushes those numbers higher. The administration needs the global economy to exhale and needs distance itself from a war so it can focus on other priorities, including an already difficult midterm election cycle.

With the ceasefire, all that has paused. Yet, the question every boardroom, general counsel’s office, and procurement team is asking right now is simple: How can I plan around this?

Iran, for its part, wants the bombing to stop. Its conventional navy has been functionally destroyed, its air defenses are highly degraded, its nuclear facilities have sustained severe damage, and its cities, bridges, and transportation networks have been hit repeatedly. The regime survived and arguably emerged with greater domestic legitimacy than it had before the war, but the physical toll is mounting. Tehran wants the strikes to stop so it can claim victory by survival without incurring any more costs.

This mutual exhaustion is the load-bearing structure of the ceasefire. If the ceasefire holds for 72 hours (as I think it might), and if the strait begins opening to escorted traffic by Friday as Iranian officials have signaled, and if neither side finds a reason to walk away before the Islamabad talks convene, then the ceasefire will likely be extended. Not because the underlying disputes get resolved, but because the cost of resuming hostilities exceeds the cost of continuing to talk. Expect a rolling series of extensions, probably 30 to 45 days at a time, that resolve nothing while letting global markets gradually stabilize.

As we wrote earlier this month, if the disruption remains limited to roughly one quarter, the oil price shock is painful but reversible, ugly, but manageable. And every week the ceasefire holds pushes the trajectory toward the manageable scenario.

What happens after the ceasefire?

Again, if the ceasefire holds, we then have to start thinking about how this conflict resolves. Not surprisingly, this is where it gets uncomfortable.

The conventional assumption in Washington and in global markets is that the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal once the fighting stops. That assumption underestimates what Iran has built.

Iran’s parliament is working to pass a Strait of Hormuz Management Plan, codifying its claimed sovereignty over strait transit and establishing a legal framework for collecting toll fees. Media reports indicate Iran has been charging vessels between $1 million and $2 million per transit and is planning to keep charging those tolls for all ships as the strait reopens. So, at $1 million per ship, and with up to 135 transits per day, 365 days a year, that’s about $40 billion to $50 billion in annual revenue for Iran, or up to 15% of Iran’s pre-war GDP. All at an operating cost that approaches zero.

Iran didn’t enter this war planning to build the most lucrative chokepoint tax in modern history, but it may have stumbled into exactly that.

Compare that to Iran’s oil sector, which generated approximately $53 billion annually in 2022 and 2023, required massive capital investment and maintenance, and was subject to constant disruption. The toll revenue is comparable in scale, dramatically cheaper to operate, and immune to sanctions. If the final number is even a fraction of this, it鈥檚 still a massive financial shot in the arm for Iran that could become a far greater advantage than the damage to capital that the war has inflicted upon the state.

Iran didn’t enter this war planning to build the most lucrative chokepoint tax in modern history, but it may have stumbled into exactly that.

Of course, this changes the structural incentives around the Strait of Hormuz in ways most analysts haven’t fully absorbed. A permanent toll system gives Iran a revenue base to rebuild the military assets it lost, reduce its dependence on oil exports, and fund domestic investment that could blunt future protest movements. The regime’s cost-benefit calculus has inverted: Keeping the toll operational in place may now be worth more than restoring the pre-war status quo.

For the US and Israel, the only way to dismantle this arrangement is by force and the last 38 days demonstrated the limits of that approach. The US achieved air and naval superiority, destroyed Iran’s conventional military, and killed the supreme leader. None of it was enough to compel capitulation, and in fact, may not have even come close. A second campaign faces the same likely result, against a population now unified by the experience of surviving the first one.

The war didn’t just disrupt global trade. It may have permanently repriced the most important shipping lane on Earth 鈥� and left every piece of energy infrastructure in the Gulf more vulnerable than it was before the first air strike landed.

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Key takeaways:

• • • Agentic AI poised for adoption uptick 鈥� Agentic AI is following GenAI’s rapid adoption in the legal industry, with less than 20% of firms currently implementing agentic systems but half planning or considering adoption in the near future, according to a new report.

    • Adoption depends on human oversight answers 鈥� Legal professionals are generally optimistic about agentic AI’s potential, but successful adoption depends on explicit guidance about human oversight and the lawyer’s role in maintaining ethical standards.

    • Time to retool AI education? 鈥� Agentic AI’s increased autonomy introduces new oversight and ethical challenges for law firms, making targeted education and clear guidance essential to understanding the differences from GenAI.

Over the past several years, law firms and corporate legal departments have turned towards generative AI en masse. At the beginning of 2024, just 14% of all law firms and legal departments featured an enterprise-wide GenAI tool. Just two years later, that number had already risen to 43% of all firms and departments, according to the 2026 AI in Professional Services Report, from the 成人VR视频 Institute (TRI). For large law firms or legal departments, those percentages 鈥� not surprisingly 鈥� are beginning to approach 100%.

With GenAI adoption now this widespread, legal industry leaders are now turning their attention to two primary initiatives. One, of course, is how to get the most out of the AI tools they already have 鈥� a task that is proving a bit elusive. Currently, less than 20% of lawyers say their organizations measure AI鈥檚 return-on-investment, and most corporate lawyers say they have no idea how their outside law firms are approaching AI. Thus, instituting not just AI tools, but also an AI strategy is the second top priority for law firms and corporate legal departments in 2026 and beyond.

However, even as the legal industry reaches a tipping point in adopting GenAI tools, technology innovation still continues unabated. Agentic AI has emerged as the next wave of innovation that could change how lawyers work on a daily basis, offering a way to autonomously complete multi-step tasks. For example, agentic AI systems are already being built for the legal industry that independently researches a regulation or law, drafts a document based on the finding, identifies pitfalls, and revises the document, with stops for human guidance only instituted as desired.

According to the AI in Professional Services Report, the legal industry is already making headway towards implementing agentic AI systems. For agentic AI to truly take hold in legal, however, lawyers still require more education around not only how it differs from the GenAI systems they already have in place, but also when and where human intervention needs to occur within an agentic system.

The early stages of agentic AI

Examining current agentic AI adoption for the legal industry almost takes one back in time 鈥� two years, to be exact. Following the public release of GenAI in late-2022, many legal industry organizations spent 2023 evaluating and experimenting with AI systems, usually with a small working group of interested guinea pigs. As a result, only 14% of survey respondents said their law firms or corporate legal departments were engaged in organization-wide GenAI rollouts at the start of 2024. However, more than half of respondents said their organizations expected to be rolling out large-scale GenAI systems over the next 1 to 3 years. The intervening two years since then have proved that prediction to be largely true.

Agentic AI usage in the first half of 2026 looks largely similar to GenAI in 2024. The legal industry started to experiment with agentic AI at the beginning of 2025, with an eye towards actual implementation in 2026 and beyond (particularly as legal software providers began to integrate agentic systems into their own products). As such, less than 20% of recent survey respondents say their organization is engaged in widespread agentic AI adoption, but with about half of respondents said their organization is either planning to use or considering whether to use agentic AI in the near future.

By and large, lawyers feel positive about the agentic AI movement. When asked about their sentiment towards agentic AI, 51% of legal industry respondents said they felt excited or hopeful, while just 19% said they felt concerned or fearful. Further, about half (47%) said they actively believe agentic AI should be used for legal work, while 22% felt it should not, with the remainder saying they were unsure. These figures largely track with the sentiments expressed about GenAI in 2024, which have only grown over time from about 50% positive two years ago to two-thirds of all legal professionals feeling positive currently.

This all lends further credence to a rise in agentic AI usage similar to what law firms and corporate legal departments experienced with GenAI over the course of 2024 and 2025. Indeed, when asked when they expect agentic AI to be a central part of their workflow, few have baked agentic systems into their daily work currently, but a majority of legal industry respondents expect it to be central within the next 3 to 5 years.

The unique barriers of agentic AI adoption

Agentic AI does differ from GenAI in one crucial area that may limit its growth potential within the legal industry, however 鈥� autonomy. By and large, GenAI systems operate on a back-and-forth basis: Users provide the tool a prompt, receive its output, and then iterate back-and-forth from there. Agentic AI is intended to be more automated by design, only requiring human input at pre-determined points in the process. And that makes some lawyers understandably nervous.

When asked why they might feel hesitant about using agentic AI for legal tasks, the most common answer was a general fear of the unknown, but the second most common answer dealt with the need for careful monitoring and oversight. In fact, some respondents said they were excited about GenAI, but more cautious about agentic AI鈥檚 potential.

鈥淎gentic AI, while exciting, to me removes oversight a step too far,鈥� said one such lawyer from a US law firm. 鈥淚 like the idea of prompting and reviewing a result. It is something else to have a machine have so much autonomy in the actual doing of a thing and potentially acting on my behalf without that very concrete review.鈥�

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An assistant GC at a US company also pointed to potential privacy and security concerns, adding: 鈥淭he fact that agentic AI operates in a much more autonomous way, with a lack of control from the user, means there are many unknowns that are hidden beneath the process.鈥�

For law firm and corporate legal department leaders looking to potentially implement agentic AI systems into their practice, this means re-thinking what AI education and training will mean moving forward. Beyond that, however, legal AI educators also will need to make sure to pinpoint and perhaps over-explain those specific instances in which human oversight needs to occur in agentic systems. More autonomous does not mean fully autonomous, and particularly for lawyers with ethical duties to their work product, lawyer oversight will in fact be a necessary part of any agentic system.

For law firm or legal department leaders, that means that finding the right balance between efficient workflows and human intervention will be key to agentic AI adoption. And those organizations that can best communicate human-in-the-loop to their professionals up-front will be rewarded with more increased and reliable adoption.

Clearly, lawyers feel positively about the agentic AI future, after all. They just need it spelled out explicitly as to what the lawyer鈥檚 role will be in this new paradigm.

鈥淎gentic AI is powerful, but its moral compass must come from humans,鈥� one UK law firm barrister noted aptly. 鈥淟awyers are trained to safeguard fairness, rights, and the rule of law 鈥� principles that should guide how AI is designed, governed, and deployed. Hope lies in our ability to shape AI through these values for fairer values for society as a whole.鈥�

You can download a full copy of the 成人VR视频 Institute鈥檚听2026 AI in Professional Services Report听here