In the U.K., new trade restrictions are still causing headaches for importers and exporters, and Downing Street has done little to ease growing tensions with Northern Ireland and Scotland. And in the E.U. itself, concerns that other member countries might follow the U.K. out the door are percolating in political circles, even though all witnessed the agony of the Brexit process and presumably understand the dangers involved.

In a recent webcast, The Future of Europe Post-Brexit, a panel of Reuters international editors discussed these and other topics, providing an overview of the issues and stories they expect to be covering in the coming months and years. The discussion was led by Reuters European Correspondent Gabriela Baczynska.

What will Boris do?

For Europeans, Brexit has become shorthand for many of the pressing economic and trade problems in the region, and many questions about the future remain.

Panelist Guy Faulconbridge, Reuters Bureau Chief in the U.K. and Ireland, said that one of the biggest questions of all is what U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson intends to do over the next few years with the power he has accumulated as a result of his successful Brexit campaign. 鈥淭he question of what Boris does with his power goes to the heart of one of the riddles of Brexit,鈥� Faulconbridge said, adding that the original impetus for Brexit was the idea that the U.K. needed to be fundamentally reformed in order to keep up with emerging modern economies, particularly in Asia.

What we鈥檝e seen from [UK PM] Boris [Johnson] so far is a complete lack of ambition for any sort of reform that is going to transform the U.K.

That鈥檚 not happening, however, at least not yet, Faulconbridge explained, which is one of the reasons that Dominic Cummings, Johnson鈥檚 former chief adviser and the so-called 鈥渁rchitect鈥� of Brexit, has over Johnson鈥檚 leadership.

鈥淲hat we鈥檝e seen from Boris so far is a complete lack of ambition for any sort of reform that is going to transform the U.K.,鈥� he observed. 鈥淪o, when you look at the falling out that you see between Cummings and Johnson right now, there鈥檚 actually a much deeper divide there, which is essentially about what Brexit should have been, or should be, for the U.K.鈥�

Simmering tensions

Reuters European Economics Editor Mark John, another panelist, noted that concern over Brexit鈥檚 impact on the E.U. covers a wide range of anxieties 鈥� from those who are afraid other countries might defect from the E.U., to those who insist that Brexit has simply reinforced the value of membership in the E.U., and to those who see the shifting political winds in such increasingly autocratic countries as Turkey and Poland as a harbinger of potential challenges to so-called 鈥淓uropean values.鈥�

John cited the between the E.U. and Switzerland as evidence that many relationships between countries in the E.U. are contentious at best. 鈥淲hile not as dramatic as Brexit, the [failed talks] show another established democracy having difficulty with some of the conditions to the E.U. single market,鈥� he said.

The Northern Ireland problem

Likewise, tensions among the E.U., the U.K., and Northern Ireland continue to be a hot point of contention, with intransigence on all sides leading absolutely nowhere.

Northern Ireland is upset for several reasons, Faulconbridge explained. Not only does the country object to any kind of border between itself and the U.K., many people in Northern Ireland fear that Brexit will ultimately that halted the 30 years of conflict known as 鈥渢he Troubles.鈥� During Brexit negotiations, however, 鈥渢he E.U. didn鈥檛 want Northern Ireland to serve as a back door into its single market,鈥� he said. As a result, the E.U. insisted on a border 鈥� which is why an imaginary line was drawn in the middle of the Irish sea and 鈥渇ishing rights鈥� became one of Brexit鈥檚 hottest flashpoints.

Indeed, the ongoing dispute over fishing rights in the Irish Sea has also affected negotiations for a financial services deal.

Another panelist, Reuters Financial Editor Rachel Armstrong, explained that because the Brexit agreement reached on Dec. 24, 2020 did not address the financial services sector, London-based financial institutions can no longer trade Euro-zone stocks and bonds or conduct financial business without involving an E.U. 鈥溾��; and banks that want to do business in the E.U. must now have a physical presence wherever they wish to operate. However, in what has come to be called the 鈥溾�� dispute, France is currently refusing to consider a financial services deal until the U.K. grants fishing rights to E.U. fishermen in the Irish Sea.

If you speak to people here in the finance industry, they describe Brexit as a slow puncture.

Despite the lack of a finance deal, however, the feared exodus of several-hundred-thousand finance jobs from London has not occurred, Armstrong said. A few thousand finance jobs have left London, she noted, but finance is a sector that employs roughly half a million people. 鈥淚f you speak to people here in the [finance] industry, they describe Brexit as a slow puncture,鈥� she said. 鈥淲hat firms have done for the moment is that they鈥檝e moved the minimum people they need to move, they鈥檝e moved the minimum number of assets they need to move, and now they鈥檙e basically waiting to see what happens.鈥�

In the meantime, money is flowing from London to such cities as Amsterdam and Frankfurt, though 鈥渢he big winner is New York,鈥� she said.

Going it alone

On the international front, the U.K. is also discovering that it doesn鈥檛 have as much negotiating power as it had hoped, said Faulconbridge. Though the U.K. has secured free-trade deals with 30 or so countries, most of them small, any potential trade deal with the U.S. has been put on hold by the Biden administration, and negotiations with such historic allies as Australia haven鈥檛 gone as well as expected.

As part of the E.U., the U.K. had more negotiating power, but as a standalone nation, the country鈥檚 $3 trillion economy does not give it nearly as much leverage internationally. Consequently, the U.K. government is having to make 鈥渉ard compromises,鈥� he said.

Of course, even before the pandemic struck, significant changes were anticipated by many businesses in the United Kingdom (the U.K.) and the European Unions (the E.U.) as .

With just days to go before the Brexit transition period came to an end, the U.K. and the E.U. reached a deal on future relationship agreements. However, while businesses may breathe a sigh of relief that Brexit is 鈥渄one鈥� 鈥� it is not yet complete. The future relationship agreements should be seen as a framework to build on in future negotiations as the U.K./E.U. relationship develops further. All of which, of course, points to more change.

To shed further light on this, 成人VR视频 Legal Insights Europe has released a new Special Report, , which describes how much of that change will come as the U.K. legislative and regulatory landscape diverges from that of the E.U.

The European Union Withdrawal Agreement Act 2020 maintained considerable legal continuity after the U.K.鈥檚 withdrawal from the E.U. by enabling the U.K. to give effect to most E.U. law until the end of the Brexit transition period. With the U.K. outside the orbit of the EU, the European Union Withdrawal Act 2018 aims to avoid falling off a legal cliff by domesticating E.U. law, as far as possible, into a category known as retained E.U. law. However, much retained E.U. law requires amendment, and there are more amendments to come.

You can download a copy of the new Special Report, , here.

Tracking legislative changes can be tricky in the best of times, and as U.K. legislation diverges from the E.U.鈥檚, the task will become ever more complex, more time-consuming, and more challenging. As the report demonstrates, legislation divergence can often mean increased costs for businesses. A study by the Organization for Economic Development in Europe (OECD) and the International Federation of Accountants (IFAC) showed that legislation divergence was a moderate-to-substantial barrier to growth.

As the U.K./E.U. relationship takes effect and details of divergence become known, the need for clear, accurate and up-to-date information will be imperative as lawyers to provide聽 to their clients.

Wide-ranging impact

As the special report indicates, the U.K./E.U. future relationship agreements will be a key part of the European business landscape for the foreseeable future. Further, resulting regulatory and legislative divergence is already impacting businesses and law firms in several fundamental ways. Legal advisors will need a reliable, comprehensive, and efficient tool for legislative comparison that will allow for prompt analysis and assessment of the impact of the changes. This would enable lawyers to assist their clients and organizations to formulate the appropriate legal and business strategy.

The OECD/IFAC study suggests that legal teams that can master this challenge will have the potential to deliver extraordinary value by helping their organizations and clients minimize costs and risks. The financial services companies responding to the survey incurred average costs equaling 5% to 10% of their annual revenue, especially when 鈥渞egulations are opaque, and information regarding requirements that are divergent across different jurisdictions is difficult to acquire.鈥�

Given that the future relationship agreements are seen to be merely a cornerstone for further developments 鈥� which inevitably means more change 鈥� businesses will need practical advice on how best to navigate this dynamic space. As legislation diverges, compliance issues and their related costs are likely to increase. In the near term, businesses may struggle to know the best thing to do and so will need expert guidance that is based on a thorough understanding of the new legislative landscape. For businesses with operational footprints in both the U.K. and the E.U., the challenges will be significant.

Whether your business is directly affected by Brexit or not, change is likely to be on your horizon. Businesses in the U.K. and the E.U. are currently in a period in which external factors are demanding significant policy responses in ways that industries haven鈥檛 seen for decades.

罢丑别听聽has been immense and recovery is likely to be drawn out, difficult, and have significant policy implications. The pandemic has also聽聽in many sectors, which will present future challenges and opportunities as well.

Further, economic recovery may present countries with a chance to put sustainability near the top of their agenda in order to achieve carbon reduction targets. More specifically, in the U.K, many in parliament have spoken about the need to rebalance the economy to address regional inequalities. These are generational policy issues that apply globally, which means that change, complexity, and uncertainty are all on the horizon.

Organizations will need to be proactive in the coming years to ensure they stay abreast of changes. In helping businesses meet this challenge, their lawyers will need comprehensive answers quickly with technology-enabled innovation becoming paramount.